Flood Watch – April/May 2021

Flood Watch

As we moved into 2021 January storm Christoph saw more periods of heavy rainfall and more local flooding up to the very last day of the month, by which time the monthly average rainfall was exceeded by 75%. February started milder but by the end of the first week temperatures plummeted to -5 centigrade over night with daytime temperatures around zero and we experienced the first snowfall brought about by the “Beast from the East 2”, named Darcy. This was followed by a week of strong winds with coastal speeds of over 80 mph although locally they only reached 45 mph. In spite of these wind speeds and the issuing of yellow warnings the storm remained unnamed (should have been Evert!).The instability of the jet stream which had brought down cold polar air suddenly reversed to bring warm air from the south. The monthly rainfall returned to average and although the river level peaked several times no more flooding occurred.

March started slightly warmer but wind chill factor kept temperature in single figures. However rainfall throughout the month has dropped and should end up below average. As we approach the end of the month the Spring equinox will be reached by the 20th when day and night hours are equal at the equator although locally this will occur on 17/18th being in the northern hemisphere. On the 27th the clocks will go forward 1 hour when sunset will be at 7.30pm and daylight hours would have extend to 12 hours 40 minutes.

April’s forecast expects a period of more stable weather as long as US hurricane season does not create problems with the jet stream. An historic event on 28th February saw a meteor stream deposit debris of up to 300 grams in Gloucestershire. The finding of such fragments, not seen in over 30 years, identified the age in excess of the earth at 4.5 billion years. I have been informed that our local E/A contact has been re-assigned to a new location and that all contact will revert to the Partnership and Strategic Overview team. I have contacted the team leader to try to ensure continuity and that he is fully aware of our concerns over lack of progress. I am currently awaiting his response to my E-Mail.

J.Arnold

The Story of Heyford (Extra): Edmund Arnold

EdmundArnoldChest

Edmund Arnold was born of a poor family in Nether Heyford. By hard work and some good fortune he became a lawyer. He graduated from Merton College Oxford on 10th October 1661 via the Court of Arches.

He began to purchase land around Furtho and eventually acquired the Furtho estate.

In his will he left the bulk of his estate in trust to a Charity, called Arnold’s Charity, for the support and encouragement of Apprentices from several villages which had been part of his life. His descendants contested the will but it was upheld.

History Of Furtho:

Furtho is one of the ‘lost villages’ of Northamptonshire. Only the church and a 15th century dovecote are left of a village that was registered as Forho (signifying a ford near a projecting piece of land) in the Domesday Book in 1086. It is thought that the village ‘died’ when the main Northampton road (now the A508) that used to run directly through it, was diverted when the parish was enclosed in about 1600.

In 1086, Furtho was made up of three smallholdings and a population of 15 people. Only in the early 1200s did the de Fortho family become lords of the manor and stayed until 1640, rebuilding much of the church in 1620. When enclosures diverted the London to Northampton road away from Furtho, it became a deserted village with only a farm, a mediaeval dovecot, a few lumps in the land and this delightful church remaining. The chancel is 14th century but the nave and squat tower were reconstructed early in the 17th century. The font and its cover date from this time. St Bartholomew’s escaped later restoration but ceased to be a parish church in 1920. The church fell into disrepair over the years and it was not until 1991-92 that the Churches Conservation Trust carried out an extensive restoration and repair programme. The church is now used for services several times a year and is always open.

The Furtho dovecote can still be seen in the grounds. It has had quite a few alterations over the years and there is evidence of blocked up doorways, partial rebuilding and the putting in of a new floor.

Later, the manor was purchased by Edmund Arnold, an eminent lawyer. He directed that after his and his wife’s death the income from the manor of Furtho should be given to ‘pious and charitable uses’ with particular focus to be given to poor children apprenticeships in ‘honest trades’! The Edmund Arnold charity still exists today.

Furtho Dovecote

The Furtho Dovecote (sp773430) belonged to the manor buildings and was built around the 15th century , it was restored in 1917 and finally put into the care of the council in 1949. The Dovecote is circular in design and is built in limestone as is the church, and the roof is in red Tiles. There is a large door, however records show that there was a second doorway. The roof structure is a work of Art and has to be seen. There is some information inside the Dovecote and it said that in its day would have contained some 500 nesting birds.

Furtho Parish Church

The church of St Bartholomew was situated in the village of Furtho, now one of Northamptonshire’s deserted villages. Today only the church, built of local limestone, and the 15th-century dovecote remain. The original manor house stood roughly west of the church and north of the dovecote. The place name was spelt Forho in Domesday Book (1086), later Fordho and finally, by 1254, Fortho. It means a ford by a ridge of land. In the early 13th century the de Fortho family resided in the manor house.

Survivor of a lost Medieval village

When enclosures diverted the London to Northampton road away from Furtho, it became a deserted village with only a farm, a medieval dovecot, a few lumps in the land and this delightful 900-year-old church remaining. The chancel is fourteenth century but the nave and squat tower were reconstructed early in the seventeenth century. The font and its cover also date from this time.

St Bartholomew’s ceased to be a parish church in 1920. Inside it is tranquil and atmospheric.

Furtho Location:

Furtho is a deserted medieval village and former parish in South Northamptonshire, England. It is now part of Potterspury civil parish. Furtho is east of Potterspury, west of Cosgrove and about 2 miles (3 km) northwest of Stony Stratford. The nearest towns are Wolverton 3 miles (5 km) to the southeast and Towcester 5 miles (8 km) to the northwest.

Location of FurthoGoogleMaps

Document Archives:

A large amount of  Edmund Arnold’s papers and those accumulated after his death have been catalogued and summarised, by an archivist. They were original documents lodged in Northamptonshire Archives at the Records Office. The original transcriber has anglicised words and modernised punctuation.

The Will

Edmund Arnold of Doctors Commons, London 1676

This transcription is from – Northamptonshire Record Office Arnold Edmund Will FXIII 22

In the name of God Amen I Edmund Arnold of Doctors Comons London Esqr. being of the providence of my good God in reasonable health of body and of sound and perfect minde and memory praysed bee his holy name therefore taking into consideration the Frailty and uncertainty of this life (after Sixty Seaven yeares of age compleate and that I shall ere long finish my Cause therein willing to provide for the Disposall of my Estate whilst I am vigorous in minde and memory and in soe good health doe this First day of may 1675 make and declare this my last Will and Testament in manner and forme following that is to say First and before all things I commend and Committ my Soul into the hands of Almighty God who gave itt mee beseeching him of his infinite mercy to forgive mee my sins and to purge me from all unrighteousness in and by the merritts of the precious blood shed of my blessed Lord and Saviour Jesus Christ and Sanctification of the holy Spritt and of the infinite goodness to receive my body and Soule into everlasting life in the hour of death and in the day of Judgement good Lord delivers me My body I commend to decent and unpompous burial on the Southside of the upper part of the Chancell of Furthoe towards the East Wall with one Ensize grave Stone over me having this Inscription Hic jacet Edmundus Arnold Arimer quondam Dominus (sub Deo) hujus Manerii, qui obit there to Expect a ioyfull resurrection att the last day to eternall Bliss And touching the Worldly Estate which God of his bountifull goodness hath bestowed upon mee I give and dispose the same as followeth Imprimis to the poore of Nether Hayford in the County of Northampton where I was borne I give the summe of tenn pounds I say to the Generall poore of that Towne which is in Severall parishes To the poore of the parish of St. Giles Northampton I give five pounds To the poore of Stony Stratford ten pounds To the poore of the parish of St Bennett Paul’s Wharf London five pounds And to the poore of the parish of Furtho (which are few) Fifty shillings these severall Legacyes to bee payd within Six moneths after my decease And to bee distributed att Hayford by four or more of the principall Inhabitants And at St Giles Northampton Stratford St. Bennetts and Furtho by the Ministers and Churchwardens with Assistance of some of the principall Inhabitance Item I give to my sister Carr if shee survivies mee ten pounds …? And during her life after my death The same to bee payd to her use into the hands of my Cosin Edward Buncher the Elder or John Bouncher the younger and thenne to bee delivered to her hands To my faithfull Servant John Buncher the younger I give fifty pounds And my Sister Bunchers other Children tenn pounds a peece to my Sister Langtons Children that shall bee living at the tyme of my decease Ten pounds a peece to my Cozen Richard Carr I give Twenty pounds to being a towardly young man like as is brother Edward to whome I give Fifteene pounds To his untoward brother Robert I give Ten pounds and to his sister Ann and brother Edmund Ten pounds a peece Item I give to my brother Buncher Five pounds to my brother Langton five pounds To my brother Carrs daughter Anne I give five pounds insteed of giving it to him to bee spent I meane Five pounds besides her former Ten [in the margin this razure made by mee those Legacyes being  after inserted E: Arnold] soe in all shee is to have Fifteene pounds To my God daughter Rawlins five pounds and to my Kinswoman and Goddaughter Mary the daughter of my sister Langton I give five pounds more then her afore sayd Ten to my kinsman Thomas Arnold of Hayford Forthy Shillings and to his brother Richard Five pounds and to Edmond Langton Ten pounds more then his Former Ten given him as one of my Sister Langtons Children those respective Legarcies to bee payable within Twelve months after my decease and to my Godson James Mervin I give five Markes to bee payd within the same space For my wife I have already well provided by setting the Mannor of Furthoe (Savinge the Rectory and wood) upon her dureing her life with the Rents and profits thereof And have moreover given her Six hundred pounds in money And I doe more over hereby give unto her all my plate and household stuffe Item I give and bequeath unto my Sister May five pounds and to my Neece her daughter the like summe of Five pounds To my Neece Anne Buncher wife of Cozen Edward Buncher Five pounds And to her husbands sonne and Two Daughters Forty shillings a peece To the Hospital of Bridewell I give Ten pounds xxxxxxx  [in the margin] Stot 3:l to my Cozen Steere E Arnold – and to his wife Forty shillings To my Cozen William Birtwishell  als Burd in Covent Garden Three pounds and to his wife Thirty Shillings and to theire youngest sonne Twenty shillings To my Cozen Dyer wife of my foresaid Kinsman William Dyer Esqr Forty shillings to buy her a Ring to my Cozen Mervin and his wife Forty shillings a peece to buy them Rings and to theire sonne James my Godson Five pounds To Sir Georg Courthope Knt and my Lady his wife Forty shillings a peece to buy them Rings And to my Cozen Mrs Mary Courthope theire Daughter Three pounds to buy her a Ring And to my Neece Mrs Elizabeth May widdow Forty shillings to buy her a Ring Those respective Legacyes to bee payd within a yeare and a halfe next after my decease beinge Determined by the assistance of God to settle for the future my Mannor of Furtho withall the Lands woods members and appurtenances thereof after the decease of mee and my wife to Charitable uses in which Case Ju..st bee beholding to friends to bee my Feeffees   and having had good Experience of ye Justues and prudence of the Right Worshipful Lyonell Jenkins Knt Doctor of Lawes Judge of the Admiralty and Prerogative Courts in such Case and of his and titular Kyndnes to my selfe I beg of him to bee one of them And I doe hereby give bequeath and devise my sayd Mannor of Furtho in the County of Northampton And all Lands grounds Closes woods members and appurtenances thereunto belonging and all other my Lands Tenements and Hereditament whatsoever in Furtho saving the advowsion of the Rectory there) And else where in the sayd County of Northampton or Bucks unto the sayd Sir Lyonell Jenkins my Kinsman William Dyer of Tottenahm hig & cross Esqr Mathew Johnson of the Middle Temple London Esqr Thomas Bedford of Doctors Comons gent and, [left blank] and to theire heirs and assignes for Ever upon trust and to the Intent that they or theire heires or the Survivor or Survivors of them or the heires of such Survivor after the death of me and of my wife shall by with and out of the Rents Revenues and profitts of the premisses pay and deliver yearly and every yeare for Ever to the uses hereafter following that is to say Ten pounds per Annum for and towards puttinge out poore Children Apprentice to some honest trade out of and from the Towne of nether Heiford aforesaid I meane Children of poore persons there and towards settinge them upp as they come out of theire tyme and five pounds per child towards releife of the poore people of the sayd Towne of Neither Haiford Twenty pounds per Annum for and towards puttinge out poore Children Apprentice out and from the Towne of Stony Stratford in the County of Bucks and towards settinge them upp as they come out of theire tymes And five pounds per Annum for and towards the releife of the poore of the sayd Towne of Stony Stratford Ten pounds per Annum for and towards puttinge out poore Children Apprentice out of and from the Parish of St. Gyles Northampton where I began my Clarkeshipp and towards settinge them upp when they come out of theire tymes and five pounds And towards the releife of the poore of that parish of St Gyles Five pounds per annum towards puttinge out a poore Child or Children apprentice out and from upper Hayford in the Sayd County of Northampton and towards settinge them upp Five Pounds per Annum towards puttinge a poore Child or Children Apprentice out and from Stowe vizt greate Stowe or Little Stowe in the County of Northampton and towards settinge them upp and Five pounds per Annum for and towards puttinge a poore Child or Children apprentice out and from the Towne of Weedonbect in the sayd County of Northampton where I went to schoole Item Twenty pounds per Annum for and towards Mayntenance of poore schoollers in Merton Colledge Executor to which I am a tenant for some ground in London to be distributed at the discretion of ye Warden Item further to yssue out of ye sayd Rents revenues and profitts I give and bequeath Twenty pounds per Annum for ever after ye deceases of me and my wife for and towards ye support and Mayntenance of an orthodox Minister who shall bee Licenced  by and answereable to his ordinary in point of Conformity to reale Divine service at Least on Sundays forenoone and afternoon and perfume the other Divine offices in one of the Churches or Chappells in the Sayd Towne of Stony Stratford the sayd Minister to bee from tyme to tyme Ellected by Twelve of the Substantiallest Inhabitants housekeepers there with the assistance and advise of the Rectors or Ministers of Furtho Cosgrave Passenham and Calverton and more to have voice in the sayd Ellection but such as are Conformable to the orders of the Church and frequenters of the same and I will that such poore as shall participate of my foresaid bequest bee alsoe Conformable and frequenters of theire Church unlesse they bee Impotent and unable soe to doe And I doe wish that the parents of the poore Children aforesayd  bee alsoe orderly and Conformorable Item to yssue more over out of the sayd rents and profits of Furthoe I give Ten pounds per Annum for ever to bee paid after the death of me and of my wife to the vicar or Curat of Pottersperry in the sayd County towards the increase of his poore stipend or meanes hopeinge that the Impropriator there will take into Consideration how farr hee is Concerned with the Curse of the Soules there and Augment that pittifull Stipend such Curat or viccar to bee orthodox and Conformable and of good life and Co..fersation Item I will that the Charges of my trustees from tyme to tyme in theire Actinge aboute this trust and of such as shall be imployed by them bee defrayed from tyme to tyme out of the premises and I doe recommend my Kinsman and faithfull Servant John Buncher unto my sayd trustees to bee Imployed by them in oversightinge the Lands grounds and apprutenances and gathering the Rents And I doe will and desire of my wife that in Case of her Over Liveing mee shee permitt and suffer the sayd John Buncher the younger to Live in and hold the house at Furthoe with the Dove house and out houseinge duringe his life as alsoe the house ground and house yard Meadow which hee now holdeth at Twenty pounds per Annum rent in which Consideration I give to her for her life her dwellinge in my house in Knight Rider streete London wherein I now dwell and the rent or benefit of the twoe houses thereunto adjoining she paying the Church and Colledge Rents from tyme to tyme vizt Forty Five shillings per Annum to Paules and Ten pounds Tenn shillings per Annum rent to Merton Colledge besides acquittance mony but if shee shall Exacte more and not suffer him to hold the sayd housing and grounds at that rate for his life then I give the benefit of my sayd houses and Leases to him to be by him entered upon and enjoyed and disposed of soe Long as she shall interrupt him in ye sayd possession at the aforesaid Rent hee defraying the rents and repaires soe Long as hee holdeth them and my wife besides the Rents to defray ye Repaires so Long as she holdeth them more over  the sayd John Buncher after my wifes decease to have Ten pounds per Annum out of the Rents and profits of Furthoe for such his assistance of my Trustees in the Execution of ye foresaid trust and touching my sayd houses and grounds in Knightrider streete after the death of my wife I give the same and the Leases and profitts thereof to the parish of St Bennetts Paules wharf London to the end that the Comon Counsemen Church Wardens and overseers of the poore with Six or Eight of other the more substantiall parishioners doe yearly out of the profitts thereof distribute Ten pounds per Annum to and amongst the poore of that parish and Five pounds per Annum to the poore of St Mary Magdalens old Fish streete and with the remayneing profitts yearly doe put out soe many of poore Children of ye sayd parish of St Bennett apprentice and towards settinge them up as they come out of theire tymes saveinge and reserveing and I will that Five pounds per Annum for ever of the sayd profitts of the sayd houses and ground goe and bee payd to the Hospital of Bridewell to bee Imployed to the use of the poore boyes or other Children there at the discretion of ye Govenour and assistants and I will that the Comon Councell men Church wardens and overseers of the poore of St Bennett doe take Care and see that when the sayd houses and ground shall come to theire dispose as aforesaid the rent bee duly payd and due and fittinge repair (that is sufficient repairs bee made In my foresaid bequests amongst friends I have omitted that good Lady Elizabeth Bateman to whom I give five pounds to buy her a Ring Further to my wife I give my Coach and horses and harness All the rest and residue of my monyes and personall estate after my debts payd and funerals discharged I give and bequeath to and amonest  my Kindred according to theire most need to bee distributed amongst them by my Executor or Executors with the assistance of my Cozen Edward Byncher John Steere and of the sayd John Buncher the younger saving such Legacyes as I shall by this will or by any Coddicell or Coddicells further dispose of Item I give will and devise the perpetuall advowson or patronage of the Rectory of Furthoe aforesayd unto ye principall Fellows and Schollers of Jesus Colledge in Oxford for Ever to be enjoyed and disposed of after the death of me and of the Rector whom I am now abonde to percent by ye sayd principall Fellows and Schoollers for the tyme beinge for Ever of this my Last will and Testament I Constitute and appoint my friend and Quondam Clerke Mr Thomas Bedford Executor assuring myself hee will bee faithfull and diligent in ye performance thereof and I give unto him for his paynes therein to bee taken Twenty Pounds over and besides ye afore mentioned Twenty pounds as a trustee and I doe request yr sayd Sir Lyonel Jenkins to be overseers of ye Execution of this my will as alsoe the sayd Mathew Johnson Esqr and my Cozen Dyer recomendinge with all the Service of the Sayd John Buncher the younger to my Executor praying my wife not to take it in Evill parte that I doe not name her Executrix that office beinge for burthensome and troublesome to her And I give unto her one hundred pounds more then as aforesaid praised bee my good God that hathgiven me tyme and a heart to sett my house in order and to make this my will that when my last houre Cometh I may have nothinge to doe but to dye and soe Good Lord have mercy upon my poore Soule

In wittnesse whereof I have to this my will Contayned in Two sheets of Royal paper sett my seale at the Topp having a third sheete which yet is blancke annexed and my hand and seale to this Second sheete this Sixth day of May in the yeare of our Lord one thousand six hundred seaventy five Edm: Arnold, Sealed published and declared by ye sayd Edmund Arnold as and for his last will and Testament in the presence of Thomas Sheppard Tho: Brodericke Ford Bye Tho: Champante

The three witness were each asked the same questions as below. The will also being written out three times.

Tho: Champante of Doctors Comon London gent aged Five and twenty years and upwards beinge produced as a witness on the parte of ye Comptts in this Cause was on the Six and Twenty day of January in the yeare of our Lord one thousand Six hundred Seaventy Seaven shewed in person to Mr Parker whose is the Clerke that deales for the Debts in this Cause by Mr Cottle one of ye sworne Clerks in my office whoe then alsoe left a note of the names by the and place of aboad of ye sayd Depont at the seate aforesaid and then afterwards on the same day and yeare the sayd Depont beinge sworne and Examined deposed and saith

(1) To the first Interr That he doth know all the partyes in the tytle of the Interr named for Couplts in this suite save only William Dyer but the Defendt Thomas Arnold this Depont saith that hee this Depont did know Edmund Arnold Esqr late of Doctors Comons aforesaid deceased when hee was Livinge to the (2) Interr this Dapont saith that hee this Depont hath beene aquitted with the Character and hand writing of the Sayd Edmund Arnold and this Depont doth verily believe that the will now produced and shewed unto him at the tyme of his Examination Conteyned in two sheets of Large paper with a wast sheete thereunto annexed and filed together on the Topp thereof with a Blacke Ribbone and seale thereon bearing date at the beginning the first day of May one thousand Seaventy five and at the End thereof the Sixth day of May aforesaid is of ye proper hand writing of the sayd Edmund Arnold and doth know that the name Edm: Arnold set or subscribed to the second sheete of the sayd produced will is of the proper hand writing of the sayd Edmund Arnold this Depont being present at and a wittnesse to the Subsiri beinge thereof (3) To the Third Interr this Depont sayth That this Depont was present and did see the sayd Edmund Arnold signe will or writing before mentioned for and as his last will and Testament and hee saith that there was alsoe present and witnesses to the sealing and publishing of ye sayd will Thomas Sheppard Thomas Brodericke and Ferdinando Bye whose names are Subscribed as witnesses to the Sealinge and publishing of the sayd will And hee saith that the sayd Edmund Arnold at the tyme of such his publishing and declareing his sayd Last will and Testament was of Reasonable health of body soe farr as this Depont could perceive and believe and of sound and perfect Mynde memory and understanding

Interrogtovirs to bee Adu..d to witnesses to be preduced and Exd for and on behalf of Sir Leonell Jenkins Knt Judge of Admiralty and Prerogative Courts Wm Dyer and Mathew Johnson Esqrs and Thomas Bedford gent Complts agt Thomas Arnold gent Defendants

Impropriator: – a person to whom a benefice is granted as their property.

Quondom :- that once was; former.

Knightrider Street is a street in the City of London, located a short distance to the south of St Paul’s Cathedral. It was originally the site of the German Church built in 1666–5 and demolished in 1867 to make way for Queen Victoria Street and the District Line of the London Underground; the Doctors’ Commons, also demolished in 1867 for the same reason. Much of the street was demolished when Queen Victoria Street was built in the 1860s. Until 1872, it consisted of three distinct streets: Old Fish Street in the eastern portion, Little Knightrider Street in the middle portion and Great Knightrider Street in the western portion. The Centre Page pub on the street dates back to the 1660s, when it was known as the Horn

Flood Watch – February/March 2021

Flood Watch

2020 will go down in history not only for Covid but for the extremes of weather that set new records for wettest February, sunniest Spring, heat wave in late July/August. Excessive rainfall in October and December resulted in the annual rainfall total exceeding average levels by 20%. Especially noteworthy was the 35mm that fell on 23rd December resulting in flooding levels not seen since March 2016 when the E-W culvert caused flooding in the middle of the Village. River level rose by 2m resulting in extensive flooding along the Nene. Notable was the evacuation of the Billing Aquadrome caravan site down stream of Northampton. The good news was that the alterations to the E-W culvert outflow prevented a repeat of the devastating event of 2016.

As the year ended the UK was battered by storm Bella followed by a period of excessively cold weather when temperatures barely rose above freezing. This continued into the start of 2021, interrupted by brief periods when temperature rose to more typical winter levels of around 5 to 8 degrees.

As we move further into 2021 the next major storm Christoph (to be followed by Darcy) could cause more flooding whilst the immediate future appears to remain unsettled with longer term forecasts being even more uncertain. However the only certainty is that daylight hours will continue to increase by 3 hours with the end of winter and the spring equinox and the change from GMT to BST on 28th March. As a result lighter evenings will return.

The flooding on 24th December prompted some research into the archives for the River Nene locally dating back to 1945. As increased flow rates are a sure indication of flooding events a rate of 5 cum/sec resulted in 160 events while 10 cum/sec occurred 11 times. These correlated with my own records of flooding over 23 years with the events of March 2016 and December 24th 2020 corresponding to a 10 cum/sec event. Also apparent was the increase of 10 cum/sec events since 2000, a clear consequence of climate change!

A major event in 2001 year event, namely the Saturn/Jupiter alignment in Aquarius on 21st December was a non-event due to cloud cover.

The E/A has still failed to make any progress in securing funding for completion of flood defences in the Village. As a reminder of the continuing risks I have forwarded copies of photographs of the flooding on 24th December and reminded them of the potential impact of climate change to stress the need for action now!

J.Arnold

Flood Watch – December 2020

Flood Watch

Wet, wet, wet describes October’s weather with storm Alex at the beginning of the month and storm Aiden in the closing days of October into the start of November. Although October is normally the wettest month in a year this year has been exceptional with nearly double the normal average,even exceeding the February high. Strong winds from Atlantic lows resulted in unsettled weather patterns with local wind speeds of 30 mph whilst areas of the UK experienced 70 mph,heavy rainfall and flooding. The remainder of November will see daytime temperatures around 10 degrees centigrade with a small risk of overnight frost. With daylight hours continuing to fall, currently at 8 ¾ hours,changing at 2 minutes per day this will continue until 21st December, the official start of winter when daylight hours will start to increase. As winter is characterised by periods of stormy weather the next UK named storms will be Bella, then Christoph, alternating names being male then female.

The anticipated blue moon at Halloween was obscured by night clouds although the moon rise in the east formed an impressive sight as the Nene Valley was flooded with bright moonlight, circa 5.30 pm.

With saturated ground conditions the river levels respond rapidly to new rainfall and more rapid run-off. This is a reminder to assess your own potential flood risk both from the river, brook or flash flooding and poor surface water drainage. In my own case the Easter 98 floods initiated an assessment of my own property risk resulting in a three tier system of protection. Tier 1 resulted in the creation of a relatively water tight enclosure across the full width of the property by removing gateways in a low level wall to create a single entry/exit point which is permanently protected by a flood barrier permanently fitted. This comprised a timber structure with glued joints using copper pipe lagging to form a compressible seal. In the event of leakage a submersible pump can be employed to remove unwanted water. As the garden has tiered levels a second wall can be similarly protected should the need arise. In the unlikely event that flood water reached the house the vulnerable entry points above dpc level, such as door openings or patio doors can be similarly protected. In the latter case the flood guards can use polythene sheet applied across the opening before installing the guard. A guard was produced for each opening and the wall predrilled and plugged in readiness for a rapid response should the need ever arise. To protect brickwork and provide a waterproof seal the area of walling 18 inches above ground level was treated with a clear silicon sealant.

Since 1998 only tier 1 and the use of the pump on one occasion has needed to be employed, maintaining leakage levels below 1 inch! These precautions may seem excessive but with increasing risk from climate change I feel well prepared.

J.Arnold

Flood Watch – November 2020

Flood Watch

Post Autumn Equinox saw major changes in the weather with the final days of September seeing temperatures falling well below a normal monthly average and an increase in rainfall. Overall September had a two week period with no rain but with the above changes resulted in a final monthly rainfall of 35% of normal. However October brought major changes with storm Alex (European name) and heavy rainfall on the 3rd, the wettest October daily level since 1891, well over 30mm. As a result, when combined with additional rainfall on the following days the River rose by 1.6m and areas of the floodplain were submerged on the 5th. Within 24 hours all flood water had receded. Overall October has been a very wet month and with further rain forecast for the remaining days the monthly total is expected to end up about 150% of average.

The month has been full of planetary and lunar activity with Mars appearing at its largest on 6th when the planet was closest to the Earth and later on the 13th when the planet was at its brightest, an event repeated every 15 years. Unfortunately on both occasions overcast skies at sunset blocked any visible sightings. Fortunately the night‘s sky between the hours of 2 am and 5 am cleared and Mars was clearly visible as it traversed from the SE to SW. October also had two full moons, a Harvest Moon on 1st and a Hunter blue Moon on 31st, Halloween.

An E-Mail was received from the E/A in which it was clear that little progress had been made over the last year. However, following my comments regarding the criteria for Grant-Aid funding to protect properties, currently based on properties actually being flooded and their role to prevent flooding, a revised set of criteria has been defined by Defra in February 2020. This will now be taken into account during the economical assessment and relates to the impact of flooding on the individual’s well-being. In particular the areas of concern are namely:-

● lack of warning
● whether flooding events were in day time or night time
● duration of flooding
● extent of flooding
● speed and depth of flood water
● repeat of flood events
● potential cost impacts
● what the impact of climate change will be on future flooding

Although research on the impact on the individual or household is limited it is now at least recognised that these have a profound impact on PTSD symptoms and that a high score rating should be applied. Throughout the document comments were made relating to the serious limitations of flood risk maps and their use in predicting the extent of such events. At least these criteria can now be applied to any revised assessments for village flood defences.

J.Arnold

Online data of River Nene monitoring station – Upsteam at Flore Mill – October 2020

Flood Watch

A reminder of the on-line access to real time data for rainfall and river levels and flood map risk planning websites relevant to Nether Heyford.

Latest recorded levels of the river Nene can be found on the Shoothill GaugeMap website.

Upstream at Flore:

RiverNeneUpstreamLevel05102020

RiverNeneUpstreamLevel05102020_year

Link: https://www.gaugemap.co.uk/?fbclid=IwAR2DdUovxyz69PkLN7mCTLdQ3ZcsJtAtooMzN-y2MP6wb53J2aXp9O99mU0#!Map/Summary/11644/7051

Downstream at Bugbrooke:

ShoothillGaugeMap-Bugbrooke

(B) River and sea levels  Flood information service for England from Gov.uk

(C) Northamptonshire County Council: www.floodtoolkit.com

NetherHeyfordFloodPlanningMap-June2020

GOV.UK Check your long term flood risk | GOV.UK Flood map for PlanningNether Heyford: Flood map for planning

Re-Published from earlier Flood Watch articles in 2020 from J.Arnold

Flood Watch – October 2020

Flood Watch

August ended with very unsettled weather notably due to storms Ellen and Francis, the latter reaching 80 mph in coastal areas. Locally wind speeds of 45 mph were recorded with the accompanying rainfall raising August’s total to 150% of average. These storms were the last of the 2019/2020 named storms with 1st September starting afresh with the next named storm to be Aiden. The 3rd of September was notable with a full moon called “the Corn Moon” being readily visible in the clear night sky. Throughout September the weather has been variable with periods of average temperature inter spaced with near record temperatures approaching 30 degrees due to the jet stream drawing warm southerly weather from Europe. Notable was the lack of rainfall, well below average at about 25% of average. The forecast for the remainder of September will see a return to more seasonable weather with reducing temperatures but with a low risk of rain.

The 23rd of September will be marked equatorially with the Autumn Equinox with Northamptonshire achieving equal day/night hours of 12 hours on 25th. In the following days daylight hours will reduce by 4 minutes per day.

Contact has been made with the Environment Agency to question why no active plan for further flood defence/repair/maintenance has been prepared since the completion of the Horestone Brook conversion in late 2017. Since the merger of Lincolnshire with the Anglian Region it seems priority is being given to the more flood prone area over Northampton.

J.Arnold

Flood Watch – September 2020

Flood Watch

The summer solstice on the 20th June marked the change from spring to summer with the longest number of daylight hours,namely 16.75. The month ended with average rainfall and three days when the temperature rose above 30 degrees centigrade. A notable event in the early hours of the 26th was a totally red sky often associated with the saying “a red sky in the morning-shepherd’s warning” indicating the replacement of high pressure with more uncertain weather to follow. July returned to more typical temperatures until the last day when a record 36.1 degrees was recorded. Thundery conditions across the UK gave rise to a local tornado on the Saturday 25th which started in Weedon and tracked across Flore, Nobottle, Harlestone Heath and Moulton, lasting 15 minutes in total. The local ITV News recorded the devastation to allotments in Moulton. Again the month ended
recording average rainfall.

The beginning of August was marked by an African heat-wave when temperatures again rose to over 30 degrees for three consecutive days accompanied with night time temperatures over 20 degrees known as “tropical nights”. Inevitably these extreme conditions gave rise to thunderstorms which caused surface water flooding nationally. Locally our first rainfall of the month fell on the 13th with a 15 minute deluge. The longer term weather forecast for the remainder of the month looks to be unsettled with cooler, showery weather. As a result another month will end up with average rainfall resulting in the years total so far being average (brought about by extremely wet February and dry May).

23rd September will mark the autumnal equinox or start of autumn when day and night will be of equal length.

On the 3rd July a willow tree which was causing a complete obstruction to the free flow of river water was finally removed by E/A contractors.

For those interested in cosmic events a comet was forecast to be visible on 23rd July and extended meteor showers from mid July to the end of August. Given a clear sky these are best seen around 5 am just before sunrise.

In spite of all the problems caused by the introduction of Permitted Developments whereby properties could be extended without planning application which resulted in breaches of compliance with planning regulations and the continued building on floodplains, the Government has recently announced its intention to allow conversion of shops and offices to homes without formal planning application. It looks as though this marks the end of enforcement of strict building regulation and standards.

J.Arnold

Flood Watch – July & August 2020

Flood Watch

Chaos theory, a phenomenon well known to physicists and climatologists, coupled to climate change could be the reason for meteorologists being astounded by unprecedented changes to the UK weather pattern in 2020. Those of us that grew up in the 1960’s and 70’s experienced regular seasonal patterns, snow and ice in winter, wet springs and long hot summers. However since the late 70’s global temperatures have been steadily rising with changes in the southern hemisphere triggering changes to the global weather patterns. Locally 2020 has seen new records set for the wettest February (over twice monthly average) following a mild winter, the warmest spring and the driest May (only 12% of monthly average). No rain was recorded from 3rd May to 4th June. Since then June has continued with endless showers although only two days the 7th and 18th recorded over 10mm. The remainder of June is expected to see warmer weather returning with the years total rainfall so far expected to be below the usual average to the end of June.

Having recently been contacted by a potential house purchaser enquiring about flooding risks in Nether Heyford reminded me of the role of a flood warden, his deputy and any other wardens located within the Village, all of whom should be registered and insured by the Environment Agency. They are expected to raise awareness of flood risks, help pass on flood warnings and help prepare for flooding events throughout the Village. Acquired local knowledge will often identify potential events before the E/A flood warning service. During flooding events they would coordinate all emergency services, bearing in mind that all agencies will be attending higher priority events elsewhere. An important activity is regular inspection of ditches,culverts, brooks and river and recording the extent of all potential flooding events. A Community Flood Plan should be prepared identifying all areas at risk, each given a rating and action to be taken. A full listing of all contact numbers for wardens and emergency services should be included. It would be helpful to have such a document posted on the Village web site and a reference included in the Welcome pack.

J.Arnold

Flood Watch – June 2020

Flood Watch

The 7th of May witnessed the third super moon of the year known as the full flower moon. Such super moons occur when the earth and moon’s elliptical orbit brings the earth and moon to their closest proximity or perigee and the moon appears approximately 15% larger in diameter. The event on the 7th of May was accentuated by clear night sky and resulted in an extremely bright yellow/golden glow on the moon’s surface.

The month of May continued with extremely low rainfall with only 12% of the average monthly rainfall recorded up to 20th. Day time temperatures have fluctuated from 8 to 24 degrees centigrade with a record of 27 degrees forecast for the 20th. This will be followed by some thundery weather with possible light rain with the end of the month returning to a more settled warmer spell.

In the May issue of the Prattler I mentioned assessing your own risk from flooding. Within the Village there are two possible causes, by river or brook or by flash flooding resulting from heavy rainfall. Flash flooding and local drainage is the responsibility of the LLFA whilst the E/A are responsible for the river and brook.

The following web sites provide a useful starting point:-

(a) GOV.UK Check your long term flood risk

(b) GOV.UK Flood map for Planning

NetherHeyfordFloodPlanningMap-June2020

Nether Heyford: Flood map for planning

In (a) three categories are identified by zone 1, 2 or 3, zone 1 being lowest risk of 1 in 1000 years(0.1%) and zone 3 being 1 in 100 years(1%) or less. Zone 3 can be subdivided into 3a or 3b the latter being the natural floodplain of the river. In (b) the risks are categorised into low, medium and high. The NPPF rules require climate change to be taken into account especially when making planning applications. This requires an increase in river flow rates of up to 65% when predicting the increased impact of buildings estimated over 100 years.

None of the published risk maps include the impact of climate change.

As with any predictions of flood risk from modelling the results are subject to the accuracy of input data especially rainfall in catchment area and ground terrain profile accuracy. Even the choice of elements within the model and the selected grid size can radically change the output. The best cross check is to correlate to actual recorded events.

The most reliable sources of information lies within the local community especially with those that reside close to the potential sources of risk and who have first hand experience over several decades. So in assessing your risk familiarise yourself with the maps and then ask questions of local residents.

J.Arnold

Whilst our local flooding risk is comparatively low we must remain vigilant. Besides local and National weather news forecasts a reminder of the on-line access to real time data for rainfall and river levels is listed below:-

(A) Shoothill GaugeMap:  www.gaugemap.co.uk

Upstream at Flore:

ShoothillGaugeMap-Flore

Downstream at Bugbrooke:

ShoothillGaugeMap-Bugbrooke

(B) River and sea levels  Flood information service for England from Gov.uk

(C) Northamptonshire County Council: www.floodtoolkit.com

Finally don’t forget to register with the Environment Agency  flood warning service on Floodline 03459 881188 to receive telephone and advanced flood warnings for the area.

 

J.Arnold